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A PRIORI


a priori knowledge refers to a knowledge of the actual population, rather than that estimated by observation. Suppose for example that we pick two red beads and three black beads from a bag; what is the probability that the next bead we pick out will be red? Without a priori knowledge, we can only estimate this from the statistics we have observed, so in this case we might estimate the probability of picking out a red bead as 0.4. But if we knew, a priori, that there were only two red beads in the bag, then we would know for certain that the probability of picking out another red bead was in fact zero.

 

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